热门标签

在线博彩平台(www.hg108.vip):Aussie property market raises risk of a recession

时间:1个月前   阅读:1

皇冠信用网www.hg108.vip)是一个开放皇冠信用网即时比分、皇冠信用网开户的平台。皇冠信用网平台(www.hg108.vip)提供最新皇冠信用网登录,皇冠信用网APP下载包含新皇冠体育代理、会员APP,提供皇冠信用网代理开户、皇冠信用网会员开户业务。

AUSTRALIA’S rapid-fire interest-rate increases are sending tremors through the nation’s heavily indebted households and threatening a property downturn on a scale unseen since the eve of the 1991 recession.

The market hardest hit is bellwether Sydney, where home values have dropped almost 5% in the past three months, compared with 2% in the A$9.9 trillion (US$6.8 trillion or RM30.5 trillion) national market. Further falls are inevitable as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which meets again in just under two weeks, raises borrowing costs at the fastest pace in a generation. Home prices are weakening from Stockholm to San Francisco as central banks scramble to contain the hottest inflation in decades. Rate-hike risks are intensified in Australia by a record debt-to-income ratio of 187.2%.

“Australia is quite an exposed market in the world in the sense that household credit and mortgage debt as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) ranks quite high,” said Louis Kuijs, chief Asia economist for S&P Global Ratings. “There’s a lot of debt out there. The higher the debt-to-GDP, the more the rate channel starts to matter.”

The RBA acknowledges it has only a narrow path to push rates high enough to snuff out excess inflation without driving the economy into recession.

The Bank of Korea is grappling with a similar conundrum as it meets today, while the Federal Reserve has signalled flexibility on future rate moves.

,

在线博彩平台www.hg108.vip)是皇冠体育官网线上直营平台。在线博彩平台面向亚太地区招募代理,开放皇冠信用网代理申请、皇冠现金网代理会员开户等业务。在线博彩平台可下载皇冠官方APP,皇冠APP包括皇冠体育最新代理登录线路、皇冠体育最新会员登录线路。

,

Global policy makers have learned the lessons from 1970s episodes by raising rates in early, large increments to keep inflation expectations in check.

The RBA has hiked by a half-percentage point at its past three meetings after a surprise quarter-point move in May to take the cash rate to 1.85%. Under a scenario of a three percentage-point increase in the RBA’s cash rate, nationwide house prices would fall by almost a quarter. Real estate advertiser REA Group Ltd says the national market hasn’t dropped by 10% in a 12-month period since 1990.

While Australian property prices are falling, they remain well above pre-pandemic levels, keeping affordability stretched and suggesting ample scope for additional declines.Bloomberg Economics reckons the RBA is unlikely to lift rates to the peak priced in by money markets of 3.8% by April – more than double the current level – as it would trigger a recession. It sees a terminal rate of 2.75% next year, a little over the central bank’s estimate of neutral and opening up the possibility of a soft landing for the economy. Still, it does see a squeeze ahead for households.

“We estimate rate hikes are likely to reduce households’ borrowing capacity by 20% by 1H23, with reduced capacity to pay set to weigh heavily on house prices over coming months,” says economist James McIntyre.

Auction clearance rates in Australia have fallen as borrowing costs have risen, sliding to about 60% from more than 80% during last year’s boom.

上一篇:新2足球信用平台出租(www.hg108.vip):Genting's net loss narrows to RM59.53mil in 2Q

下一篇:约搏以太坊博彩游戏:China's yuan rebounds from 2-year low on firmer-than-expected guidance

网友评论